KVH Industries (KVH Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is KVH Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KVH Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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KVH Industries (KVH Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » KVH Industries Inc (NAS:KVHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 Enterprise Center, Middletown, RI, USA, 02842

Website

https://www.kvh.com

KVH Industries Inc is a manufacturer of solutions that provide high-speed Internet, television, and voice services through satellite to mobile users at sea and on land. The company also provides commercially licensed entertainment, including news, sports, music, and movies, to commercial and leisure customers in the maritime, hotel, and retail markets. The Company operates in a number of geographic areas, including internationally. The Revenues are generated from international locations, mainly consisting of Singapore, Canada, European Union countries and other European countries, countries in Africa, Asia/Pacific and the Middle East, and India.

Executives

Stephen H Deckoff	director, 10 percent owner	1 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 200, GREENWICH CT 06830
Black Diamond Capital Management, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	2187 ATLANTIC STREET, 9TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Needham Group, Inc.	10 percent owner	445 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
James S Dodez	director	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Cielo Hernandez	director	C/O XL FLEET CORP., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Jennifer Louise Baker	officer: VP/CAO	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Felise Feingold	officer: SVP General Counsel	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Robert J Balog	officer: Chief Technology Officer`	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Brent C Bruun	officer: Interim CEO	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
David B. Kagan	director	300 HOLIDAY SQUARE BLVD., COVINGTON LA 70433
David Tolley	director	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Daniel R Conway	officer: EVP Inertial Navigation	C/O KVH INDUSTRIES INC, 50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
George A Needham	10 percent owner	C/O NEEDHAM & COMPANY, LLC, 445 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Roger Kuebel	officer: CFO	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Kits Van Heyningen Martin	other: Sr. Advisor	50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842