2U (TWOU) Predictability Rank

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What is 2U Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

2U Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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2U (TWOU) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » 2U Inc (NAS:TWOU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2U1:Germany

Address

7900 Harkins Road, Lanham, MD, USA, 20706

Website

https://www.2u.com

2U Inc provides educational technology services for nonprofit colleges and universities. It builds, delivers, and monitors educational platforms that enable online delivery of degree programs and alternative credentials such as short technical courses. The company provides cloud-based software-as-a-service platform and various technology-enabled services such as learning technology, live class application monitoring, content development, marketing, among others that help its clients to reach students globally. It is organized in two reportable business segments: Degree Program segment and Alternative Credential segment. The vast majority of revenue comes from the company's Degree Program segment, and most of the company's revenue is earned in the United States.

Executives

Aaron Mccullough	officer: CHIEF PRODUCT OFFICER	C/O 2U, INC., 7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
Edward S. Macias	director	C/O 2U, INC., 8201 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 900, LANDOVER MD 20785
Gregory K Peters	director	C/O NETFLIX, INC., 121 ALBRIGHT WAY, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Christopher J Paucek	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
Paul A Maeder	director	C/O HIGHLAND CAPITAL PARTNERS, HIGH ST TOWER 125 HIGH ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Alexis Maybank	director	C/O 2U, INC., 7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
James Kenigsberg	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O 2U, INC., 7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
Matthew J. Norden	officer: Co-General Counsel	C/O 2U, INC., 7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
Mark Chernis	director	2315 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10024
Paul S Lalljie	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
John M Larson	director	2895 GREENSPOINT PARKWAY, SUITE 600, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60195
Robert M Stavis	director	211 HOMMOCKS ROAD, LARCHMONT NY 10538
John B. Ellis	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	THREE GLENLAKE PKWY., ATLANTA GA 30328
Earl Lewis	director	C/O 2U, INC., 8201 CORPORATE DRIVE, LANDOVER MD 20785
Timothy M Haley	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 2-290, MENLO PARK CA 94025