What is Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust (Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 Bellevue Parkway, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19809
Blackrock Municipal Bond Trust is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Trust's investment objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax. The trust invests in sectors such as health, transportation, education, utilities, housing and other.
Executives
| J.p. Morgan Taxable Putters/taxable Drivers, Series T0014 Trust |
10 percent owner |
C/O U.S. BANK TRUST NATIONAL ASSOCIATION 100 WALL STREET-SUITE 1600 NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Jpmorgan Chase Bank, N.a. |
10 percent owner |
1111 POLARIS PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43240 |
| Henry Gabbay |
director |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
| Kevin Maloney |
other: Portfolio Manager |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Robert W Fairbairn |
director |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Christian Romaglino |
other: Portfolio Manager |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Jaeckel Theodore R Jr |
other: Portfolio Manager |
800SCUDDERS MILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| Cynthia Egan |
director |
7117 BELLONA AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21212 |
| Catherine A. Lynch |
director |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Jonathan Diorio |
officer: Vice President |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Barbara Novick |
director |
21 PINE COURT, NEW PROVIDENCE NJ 07974 |
| Charles Park |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Peter Hayes |
other: Officer of the Advisor |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
| Robert Crothers |
officer: Vice President |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
| Janey Ahn |
officer: Secretary |
55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
BBK has been successfully added to your