National Health Investors (National Health Investors) Predictability Rank

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What is National Health Investors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Health Investors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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National Health Investors (National Health Investors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » National Health Investors Inc (NYSE:NHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WX6:Germany

Address

222 Robert Rose Drive, Murfreesboro, TN, USA, 37129

Website

https://www.nhireit.com

National Health Investors Inc is a housing and medical facility REIT. The company operate through two reportable segments i.e. Real Estate Investments and Senior Housing Operating Portfolio. Real Estate Investments segment consists of real estate investments and lease, mortgage and other notes receivables in independent living facilities, assisted living facilities, entrance-fee communities, senior living campuses, skilled nursing facilities and a hospital. SHOP segment is comprised of two ventures that own the operations of independent living facilities. Company's revenues are derived from rental income, mortgage and other notes receivable interest income and resident fees and services.

Executives

James R Jobe	director	707 REGAL DRIVE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
Robert G Adams	director, officer: President	P.O. BOX 1398, MURFREESBORO TN 37133-1398
Colden Tracy M J	director	C/O PLAYA HOTELS & RESORTS N.V.,, 3950 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 301, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Robert T Webb	director	PO BOX 1102, MURFREESBORO TN 37133-1102
D. Eric Mendelsohn	officer: EVP - Corporate Finance	C/O EMERITUS CORPORATION, 3131 ELLIOTT AVENUE, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98121
Mccabe Robert A Jr	director	500 CHURCH ST, STE 200, NASHVILLE TN 37219
David L Travis	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MEDEQUITIES REALTY TRUST, 3100 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 1000, NASHVILLE TN 37203
W Andrew Adams	director, officer: President	P.O. BOX 1398, MURFREESBORO TN 37133-1398
Kevin Carlton Pascoe	officer: EVP - Investments	222 ROBERT ROSE DRIVE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
Ronald V Reel	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	222 ROBERT ROSE DRIVE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
Kristin Sallee Gaines	officer: Chief Credit Officer	2320 LONDONDERRY DRIVE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
John L Spaid	officer: Exec. VP of Finance	222 ROBERT ROSE DRIVE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
Roger R Hopkins	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2930 PRINCETON LANE, MURFREESBORO TN 37129
James Justin Hutchens	officer: President and COO	C/O VENTAS, INC., 353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Ted H Welch	director	PO BOX 1102, MURFREESBORO TN 37133-1102