AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AllianceBernstein Holding LP) Predictability Rank

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What is AllianceBernstein Holding LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AllianceBernstein Holding LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AllianceBernstein Holding LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » AllianceBernstein Holding LP (NYSE:AB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

501 Commerce Street, Nashville, TN, USA, 37203

Website

https://www.alliancebernstein.com

AllianceBernstein provides investment management services to institutional (44% of assets under management), retail (39%), and private (17%) clients through products that includes mutual funds, hedge funds, and separately managed accounts. At the end of October 2023, AB had $652 billion in managed assets, composed primarily of fixed-income (39% of AUM) and equity (42%) strategies, with other investments (made up of asset allocation services and certain other alternative investments) accounting for the remainder. The company also provides sell-side research and brokerage services through its Sanford Bernstein subsidiary (which has been put in available-for-sale status following the joint venture agreement with Société Générale).

Executives

Thomas Simeone	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 501 COMMERCE STREET, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Kate C Burke	officer: Head of Human Capital and CTO	/CO ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Joan M Lammtennant	director	40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890
Karl Sprules	officer: Head of Global Tech and Ops	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Mark R Manley	officer: SVP/Acting GC of Gen. Partner	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL, 1345 AVENUE OF AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Onur Erzan	officer: Head, Gl. Cl. Grp. & Pr. Wlth.	C/O ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Stonehill Charles G.t.	director	C/O EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC., 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104
Todd Walthall	director	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Laurence E Cranch	officer: General Counsel	ALLIANCE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Ali Dibadj	officer: CFO and Head of Strategy	C/O JANUS HENDERSON GROUP, 151 DETROIT STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Bertram L Scott	director	C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
James A Gingrich	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Seth P Bernstein	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN HOLDING, L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Nella Domenici	director	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
John C Weisenseel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105