Arbutus Biopharma (Arbutus Biopharma) Predictability Rank

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What is Arbutus Biopharma Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arbutus Biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arbutus Biopharma (Arbutus Biopharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Arbutus Biopharma Corp (NAS:ABUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

I9DN:Germany

Address

701 Veterans Circle, Warminster, PA, USA, 18974

Website

http://www.arbutusbio.com

Arbutus Biopharma Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The company discovers, develops, and commercializes cures for patients suffering from Hepatitis B infection. It is focused on developing a portfolio of drug candidates with multiple mechanisms of action and is also involved in licensing Lipid nanoparticle technology.

Executives

Melissa Rewolinski	director	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Karen Sims	officer: Chief Medical Officer	701 VETERANS CIRCLE, WARMINSTER PA 18974
J. Christopher Naftzger	officer: General Counsel and CCO	633 LOWTHER ROAD, LEWISBERRY PA 17339
Michael J. Sofia	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA CORP., SUITE 100, 8900 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 5J8
Tram Tran	director	C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA CORPORATION, 701 VETERANS CIRCLE, WARMINSTER PA 18974
Roivant Sciences Ltd.	10 percent owner	CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Michael J. Mcelhaugh	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ONCORE BIOPHARMA, INC., 3805 OLD EASTON ROAD, DOYLESTOWN PA 18902
Eric Venker	director	C/O ROIVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
James R Meyers	director	GILEAD SCIENCES, INC., 333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Andrew Cheng	director	170 HARBOR WAY, 3RD FLOOR, C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Myrtle S Potter	director	10 FINDERNE AVE, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
William H. Collier	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA CORPORATION, 701 VETERANS CIRCLE, WARMINSTER PA 18974
Elizabeth Howard	officer: Executive VP & General Counsel	100-8900 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 5J8
David C Hastings	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA, 100-8900 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 5J8
Gaston Picchio	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ARBUTUS BIOPHARMA CORP, 100-8900 GLENLYON PARKWAY, BURNABY A1 V5J 5J8