Ascent Industries Co (Ascent Industries Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Ascent Industries Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ascent Industries Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ascent Industries Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ascent Industries Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ascent Industries Co (Ascent Industries Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Ascent Industries Co (NAS:ACNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SY4:Germany

Address

1400 16th Street, Suite 270, Oak Brook, IL, USA, 60523

Website

https://www.ascentco.com

Ascent Industries Co is engaged in the chemical and metal industry. The group operates into two reportable segments namely the Ascent Tubular Products and the Specialty Chemicals Segment. The Tubular Products segment serves markets through pipe and tube and customers in the appliance, architectural, automotive and commercial transportation, brewery, chemical, petrochemical and other industries. The Specialty Chemicals segment produces specialty products for the pulp and paper, coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers (CASE), textile, automotive, household and other industries. It manufactures welded pipe and tube, majorly from stainless steel, duplex, and nickel alloys. The company also produces specialty chemicals and dyes used in various end markets.

Executives

Zuppo John Robert Iii	other: Exec VP - Synalloy Chemicals	6095 OLD BRICK STORE RD, GREENSBORO NC 27455
William Steckel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2972 STENDER WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Benjamin L Rosenzweig	director	50 OLD IVY ROAD SUITE 230, ATLANTA GA 30342
Mazzaferro Aldo John Jr	director	15 MIDWOOD ROAD, STONY BROOK NY 11790
Christopher Gerald Hutter	director	1400 16TH STREET, SUITE 250, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Privet Fund Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, Atlanta GA 30305
Henry L Guy	director	89 SUMMIT AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Aaron M Tam	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4510 COX ROAD, SUITE 201, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
John Schauerman	director	26000 COMMERCENTRE DR., LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Tackett Glenn Douglas Jr	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4510 COX ROAD, SUITE 201, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
David James Kuzy	other: EVP - Synalloy Chemicals	639 S. MAIN STREET, NAPERVILLE IL 60540
Timothy J Lynch	other: Exec VP - Synalloy Metals	13601 PERDIDO KEY DRIVE, UNIT 12 C, PENSACOLA FL 32507
Sarah M Cunningham	officer: VP Corporate Adinistration	14519 AUGUSTA LANE, ASHLAND X1 23005
Maria Haughton Roberson	other: President, ASTI	129 HONEYCUTT ROAD, TROUTMAN NC 28166
Anthony A Callander	director	PO BOX 5627, SPARTANBURG SC 29304