Acura Pharmaceuticals (Acura Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Acura Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acura Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acura Pharmaceuticals (Acura Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:ACUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

616 N. North Court, Suite 120, Palatine, IL, USA, 60067

Website

http://www.acurapharm.com

Acura Pharmaceuticals Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company based in the United States. It is engaged in the research, development, and commercialization of technologies and products intended to address medication abuse and misuse. The company's product portfolio includes Limitx, Oxaydo, and Nexafed.

Executives

Bruce F Wesson	director	1827 PACIFIC ST BROOKLYN NY 11233
William G Skelly	director	C/O ACURA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 616 N. NORTH COURT, SUITE 120 PALATINE IL 60067
George K Ross	director	1350 TREAT BLVD SUITE 250 WALNUT CREEK CA 94596
James F Emigh	officer: VP, Corporate Development
Immanuel Thangaraj	director	10001 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE SUITE 175 THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Robert A Seiser	officer: VP, Treasurer & Controller	C/O ACURA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 616 N. NORTH COURT SUITE 120 PALATINE IL 60067
Robert B Jones	officer: President & CEO	C/O ACURA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 616 N NORTH COURT PALATINE IL 60067
Albert W Brzeczko	officer: VP Pharmaceutical Sciences APT	C/O ACURA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 660 N. NORTH COURT PALATINE IL 60067
Peter A Clemens	officer: Senior VP & CFO	C/O HALSEY DRUG CO INC 1827 PACIFIC STREET BROOKLYN NY 11233
Abuse Deterrent Pharma, Llc	10 percent owner	333 EAST MAIN STREET SUITE 200 LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Claudius Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GALEN ASSOCIATES 610 FIFTH AVENUE 5TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10020
John Schutte	10 percent owner	9707 SHELBYVILLE ROAD, LOUISVILLE KY 40233
Galen Partners Iii L P	10 percent owner	610 FIFTH AVE 5TH FL NEW YORK NY 10020
Galen Management, Llc	10 percent owner	680 WASHINGTON BLVD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Galen Employee Fund Iii Lp	10 percent owner	610 FIFTH AVENUE 5TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10020