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Advent Technologies Holdings (Advent Technologies Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Advent Technologies Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Advent Technologies Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Advent Technologies Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Advent Technologies Holdings (Advent Technologies Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
500 Rutherford Avenue, Suite 102, Boston, MA, USA, 02129
Advent Technologies Holdings Inc is an innovation-driven company in the fuel cell and hydrogen technology space. The company develops, manufactures, and assembles complete fuel cell systems and the critical components that determine the performance of hydrogen fuel cells and other energy systems. It serves automotive; aviation and power generation industries. It generates revenue from the sale of fuel cell systems and the sale of MEAs, membranes, and electrodes for specific applications in the fuel cell and energy storage (flow battery) markets.
Executives
Vassilios Gregoriou director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Kevin L. Brackman officer: Chief Financial Officer 1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
James F. Coffey officer: COO and General Counsel ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
De Castro Emory Sayre director, officer: Chief Technology Officer ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Von Mcconnell director 200 CLARENDON STREET, 25TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Panoraia Gourdoupi director 200 CLARENDON STREET, 25TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Wayne Threatt director 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Lawrence Epstein director 1200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Clark Lawrence M Jr director C/O PAUL,WEISS,RIFKIND,WHARTON &, GARRISON LLP,1285 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019-6064
Anggelos Skutaris director ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Katherine E. Fleming director ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Katrina Fritz director ONE MIFFLIN PLACE, 119 MT. AUBURN STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Christos Kaskavelis officer: Chief Marketing Officer SYNTAGMATARCHOU DAVAKI 1, FILOTHEI J3 15237
John Hunter William director, officer: President and CFO 930 TAHOE BOULEVARD, SUITE 802-16, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116

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