What is Agile Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Agile Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Agile Therapeutics (Agile Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
500 College Road East, Suite 310, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540
Agile Therapeutics Inc is a women's healthcare company to fulfill the unmet health needs of women. Its product candidates are designed to provide women with contraceptive options. The firm's initial product, Twirla, (levonorgestrel and ethinyl estradiol) transdermal system is a non-daily prescription contraceptive. Twirla is based on proprietary transdermal patch technology, called Skinfusion, which is designed to allow drug delivery through the skin. The Company views its operations and manages its business in one operating and reporting segment, which is the business of commercializing its transdermal patch for use in contraception.
Executives
| Scott M Coiante |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
101 POOR FARM ROAD 3RD FLOOR, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Josephine Torrente |
director |
101 POOR FARM ROAD, PRINCETON NY 08540 |
| Sandra Carson |
director |
C/O AGILE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 POOR FARM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| John W Hubbard |
director |
101 POOR FARM ROAD 3RD FLOOR, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Fischer Seth H.z. |
director |
C/O TRIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Sharon Surrey Barbari |
director |
280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Amy Welsh |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
500 COLLEGE ROAD EAST, SUITE 310, C/O AGILE THERAPEUTICS, INC., PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Alfred Altomari |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O AGILE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 POOR FARM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Dennis Reilly |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
600 COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Jason Butch |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
101 POOR FARM ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Paul Korner |
officer: Sr. VP & Chief Medical Officer |
C/O ARDELYX, INC., 34175 ARDENWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Abhijeet J Lele |
director, See remarks |
C/O EP MEDYSTEMS, 575 RTE 73 N, WEST BERLIN NJ 08091 |
| Perceptive Advisors Llc |
10 percent owner |
51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
| Joseph Edelman |
10 percent owner |
C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003 |
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