Alliance Holdings GP LP (Alliance Holdings GP LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Alliance Holdings GP LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alliance Holdings GP LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alliance Holdings GP LP (Alliance Holdings GP LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Alliance Holdings GP LP (NAS:AHGP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.ahgp.com

Alliance Holdings GP LP is a diversified producer and marketer of coal to U.S. utilities and industrial users that operate approximately ten underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. The company operates in five reportable segments which are the Illinois Basin, Central Appalachia, Northern Appalachia, White Oak and Other and Corporate.

Executives

Robert J Druten	director	6503 SENECA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208
Craft Joseph W Iii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Chief Executive	PO BOX 22027, TULSA OK 74121-2027
Cary P Marshall	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
Wilson M Torrence	director	1717 SOUTH BOULDER, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Michael J Hall	director	7438 EAST 68TH PLACE, TULSA OK 74133
Kathleen S. Craft	10 percent owner	2502 E. 45TH ST., TULSA OK 74105
Charles R Wesley	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
Thomas M Wynne	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
R Eberley Davis	officer: SVP-Law&Admin,General Counsel	1717 SOUTH BOULDER, SUITE 400, TULSA OK 74119
Brian L Cantrell	officer: Senior VP and CFO	P O BOX 22027, TULSA OK 74121
Dave A Gilbert	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
Dale G Wilkerson	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
A Wellford Tabor	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	2820 SELWYN AVE. SUITE 550 CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Thomas L Pearson	officer: Senior VP-Law & Adminstration	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121
Gary J Rathburn	other: Member of 13d group (over 10%)	PO BOX 22027, C/O ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP, TULSA OK 74121