What is Alimera Sciences Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Alimera Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Alimera Sciences (Alimera Sciences) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6310 Town Square, Suite 400, Alpharetta, GA, USA, 30005
Alimera Sciences Inc is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company developing and commercializing ILUVIEN for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME), a leading cause of blindness, and outside the U.S. for non-infectious uveitis affecting the posterior segment of the eye (NIU-PS). ILUVIEN is a sustained-release intravitreal implant that enables patients to maintain vision longer, and importantly, with fewer injections. The company commercializes ILUVIEN in the U.S., Europe, China and the Middle East.
Executives
| Margaret Pax |
director |
6310 TOWN SQUARE, SUITE 400, ALPHARETTA GA 30005 |
| John Snisarenko |
director |
C/O ALIMERA SCIENCES, INC., 6120 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 290, ALPHARETTA GA 30005 |
| Pizzo Peter J. Iii |
director |
6120 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 290, ALPHARETTA GA 30005 |
| Erin Parsons |
director |
97 WILLISTON RD, BROOKLINE MA 02445 |
| Caligan Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
515 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Ross D Demont |
director |
51 PICKWICK ROAD, NEWTON MA 02465 |
| C. Daniel Myers |
other: Chairman Emeritus |
6120 WINDWARD PARKWAY, SUITE 290, ALPHARETTA GA 30005 |
| David Edward Johnson |
10 percent owner |
590 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Velan Capital Master Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Velan Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Velan Capital Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Adam Morgan |
director |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Velan Capital Investment Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Velan Capital Spv I Llc |
10 percent owner |
1055B POWERS PLACE, ALPHARETTA GA 30009 |
| Balaji Venkataraman |
10 percent owner |
FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP, 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106, ROSWELL GA 30076 |
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