AMN Healthcare Services (AMN Healthcare Services) Predictability Rank

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What is AMN Healthcare Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AMN Healthcare Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AMN Healthcare Services (AMN Healthcare Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » AMN Healthcare Services Inc (NYSE:AMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AMN:Mexico HCQ:Germany

Address

8840 Cypress Waters Boulevard, Suite 300, Dallas, TX, USA, 75019

Website

https://www.amnhealthcare.com

AMN Healthcare Services is one of the largest healthcare staffing company in the United States. In 2022, it offered almost 12,000 nurses and allied healthcare full-time workers with provider clients nationwide. About two thirds of its business is generated from its temporary nursing division; the other third is generated from its physician placement and technology-backed workplace solutions divisions.

Executives

Mark Christopher Hagan	officer: Chief Information and Digital	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES, INC., 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Jeffrey R Knudson	officer: CFO	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC., 8840 CYPRESS WATERS BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75019
Whitney M Laughlin	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES, INC., 2999 OLYMPUS BLVD., STE 500, DALLAS TX 75019
Daphne E Jones	director	275 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Mark G Foletta	director	AMYLIN PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 9360 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Denise L Jackson	officer: General Counsel/Sr. VP	12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Caroline Grace	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	200 E. RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
Douglas D Wheat	director	C/O HAAS WHEAT & PARTNERS LP, 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
Susan Nowakowski	director, officer: President and COO	14778 EL RODEO CT., RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Jorge A. Caballero	director	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC., 8840 CYPRESS WATERS BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75019
Christopher S Schwartz	officer: Interim Principal Financial	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC., 8840 CYPRESS WATERS BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75019
R Jeffrey Harris	director	20735 BARTLETT DRIVE, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Brian M. Scott	officer: CFO/CAO	12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Martha H. Marsh	director	9769 WEXFORD CIRCLE, GRANITE BAY CA 95746
Sylvia Trent-adams	director	C/O AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES, INC., 8840 CYPRESS WATERS BLVD, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75019