Amplify Energy (Amplify Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Amplify Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amplify Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amplify Energy (Amplify Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Amplify Energy Corp (NYSE:AMPY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2OQ:Germany 2OQ:Germany

Address

500 Dallas Street, Suite 1700, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.amplifyenergy.com

Amplify Energy Corp is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploitation, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company's oil and natural gas properties are located in large, mature oil and natural gas reservoirs. The company assets consist of producing oil and natural gas properties located in Oklahoma, the Rockies, federal waters offshore Southern California, East Texas/North Louisiana, and Eagle Ford.

Executives

Eric Edward Dulany	officer: See Remarks	C/O AMPLIFY ENERGY, 500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77002
James Frew	officer: SVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 2700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Daniel Furbee	officer: SVP, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Vidisha Prasad	director	C/O CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, INC, 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Deborah G Adams	director	FULBRIGHT TOWER, 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77010
Todd R Snyder	director	1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 51ST FLOOR, NY NY 10020
Patrice D Douglas	director	1712 CROSSBOW, EDMOND OK 73034
Martyn Willsher	officer: SVP, CFO	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Christopher W. Hamm	director	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77002
James E Craddock	director	410 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202
Eric T. Greager	director	410 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202
Evan S. Lederman	director	C/O FIR TREE PARTNERS, 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
David Proman	director	C/O FIR TREE INC., 55 WEST 46TH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard Smiley	officer: Senior V.P. Operations	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77002
Anthony William Lopez	officer: See Remarks	500 DALLAS STREET, SUITE 1700, HOUSTON TX 77002