Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (Alpha & Omega Semiconductor) Predictability Rank

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What is Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (Alpha & Omega Semiconductor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd (NAS:AOSL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AOSL:Mexico AOY:Germany

Address

475 Oakmead Pkwy, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94085

Website

http://www.aosmd.com

Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd designs, develops and supplies a portfolio of power semiconductors targeting various applications, including personal computers, flat-panel TVs, LED lighting, smartphones, battery packs, consumer and industrial motor controls and power supplies for TVs, computers, servers and telecommunications equipment. It generates revenue mainly from the sale of power semiconductors, consisting of power discretes and power ICs with a presence in Hong Kong, China, South Korea, the United States, and other countries.

Executives

Michael L Pfeiffer	director	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Bing Xue	officer: Senior VP of Global Sales	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Mike F Chang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Yifan Liang	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Michael J Salameh	director	870 MAUDE AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Wenjun Li	officer: Chief Operating Officer	475 OAKMEAD PKWY, SUNNNYVALE CA 94085
So-yeon Jeong	director	6125 SOUTHERNESS DRIVE, EL DORADO HILLS CA 95762
Hanqing Li	director	535 MISSION STREET, SUITE 2200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Yueh-se Ho	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Lucas S. Chang	director	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Claudia Chen	director	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Stephen Chunping Chang	officer: Sr Vice President of Marketing	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Chang Daniel Kuang Ming	officer: Senior VP of Marketing	C/O ALPHA & OMEGA SEMICONDUCTOR LIMITED, 475 OAKMEAN PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Robert I Chen	director	1339 MOFFETT PARK DR, SUNNYVALE CA 95112
Tony Grizelj	other: VP of World Wide Sales	475 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085