Aptevo Therapeutics (Aptevo Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Aptevo Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aptevo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aptevo Therapeutics (Aptevo Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Aptevo Therapeutics Inc (NAS:APVO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AP8N:Germany

Address

2401 4th Avenue, Suite 1050, Seattle, WA, USA, 98121

Website

https://www.aptevotherapeutics.com

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage, research and development biotechnology company focused on developing novel immunotherapeutic candidates for the treatment of different forms of cancer. Its clinical candidate, APVO436, and preclinical candidates, ALG.APV-527 and APVO603, were developed using ADAPTIR modular protein technology platform. The versatile and robust ADAPTIR and ADAPTIR-FLEX platforms are designed to generate monospecific, bispecific, and multi-specific antibody candidates that are capable of enhancing the human immune system against cancer cells.

Executives

Daphne Taylor	officer: SVP, CFO	3303 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, BOTHELL WA 98021
Kevin C Tang	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Soyoung Kwon	officer: See Remarks	APTEVO THERAPEUTICS INC., 2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Tang Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tang Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Randy Joe Maddux	officer: Senior VP, Operations	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE #1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Fuad El-hibri	director	2273 RESEARCH BLVD, SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Daniel Abdun-nabi	director	400 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 400, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Marvin L White	director, officer: President and CEO	2273 RESEARCH BLVD, SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Barbara Lopez Kunz	director	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Zsolt Harsanyi	director	2273 RESEARCH BLVD., SUITE 400, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Grady Iii Grant	director	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Shawnte Mitchell	officer: SVP, GC and Corporate Affairs	5959 HORTON STREET, SUITE 500, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Michael Adelman	officer: SVP, Commercial Operations	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121
Jane A Gross	officer: See Remarks	2401 4TH AVENUE, SUITE 1050, SEATTLE WA 98121