Ares Capital (Ares Capital) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2004. Start your Free Trial

What is Ares Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ares Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ares Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ares Capital's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ares Capital (Ares Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Ares Capital Corp (NAS:ARCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9A2:Germany 9A2:Germany 9A2:Germany

Address

245 Park Avenue, 44th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10167

Website

https://www.arescapitalcorp.com

Ares Capital Corp is a United States-based closed-ended specialty finance company. Its investment objective is to generate both current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. The company focuses on investing primarily in U.S. middle-market companies with investment opportunities as well as in larger companies. Its portfolio comprises of first lien senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loans, and mezzanine debt (subordinated unsecured loan), which may include equity components that are diversified by industry and sector. The company may invest in preferred and common equity investments to a lesser proportion. Its revenue mainly consists of interest and dividend income received from the investment made.

Executives

Michael Kort Schnabel	officer: Co-President	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Penelope F Roll	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Jana Markowicz	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Mary Beth Henson	director	130 EAST 75TH STREET, APT 7C, NEW YORK NY 10021
Steven B. Mckeever	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Michael J Arougheti	officer: President	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Michael Lewis Smith	officer: Executive Vice President	245 PARK AVENUE, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Joshua M Bloomstein	officer: Gen. Counsel, VP & Asst. Secr.	C/O ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FL EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017
R. Kipp Deveer	officer: President	245 PARK AVENUE, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Eric B Siegel	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Michael K Parks	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Robert L Rosen	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Steve Bartlett	director	7711 CARONDELET AVE, SUITE 800, ST LOUIS MO 63105
Kelly Daniel G Jr	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Bates Ann Torre	director	300 CONTINENTAL DRIVE, NEWARK DE 19713