Waitr Holdings (Waitr Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Waitr Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Waitr Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Waitr Holdings (Waitr Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Waitr Holdings Inc (OTCPK:ASAPQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1OW0:Germany

Address

214 Jefferson Street, Suite 200, Lafayette, LA, USA, 70501

Website

https://www.waitrapp.com

Waitr Holdings Inc operates an online ordering technology platform that provides delivery, carryout, and dine-in options, connecting restaurants, merchants, drivers, and diners in certain cities in the United States. It partners with independent local restaurants and regional and national chains in small and mid-size markets. Its platform uses the deliver anything ASAP model making it easy for consumers to order food, alcohol, convenience, grocery, flowers, auto parts, and more, and includes proprietary in-stadium mobile ordering technology. It has two reportable segments Delivery Services Segment and Third-Party Payment Processing Referral Services Segment, and the majority of the revenue comes from the Delivery Services Segment.

Executives

Jonathan Green	director	C/O LANDCADIA HOLDINGS, INC., 1510 WEST LOOP SOUTH, HOUSTON TX 77027
Luxor Capital Group, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Buford H Ortale	director	104 WRAUDMONT BOULEVARD, SUITE 240, NASHVILLE TN 37205
Lcg Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Luxor Capital Partners Offshore Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LTD., PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Luxor Wavefront, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Luxor Capital Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lugard Road Capital Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jdaniel Schmidt	director	214 JEFFERSON ST, SUITE 200, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Timothy Alan Newton	officer: Chief Technology Officer	214 JEFFERSON STREET SUITE 200, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Matthew Coy	officer: Chief Information Officer	214 JEFFERSON ST, SUITE 200, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Armen Yeghyazarians	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	214 JEFFERSON ST., SUITE 200, LAFAYETTE LA 70501
Steven L Scheinthal	director	1510 W LOOP S, STE 800, HOUSTON TX 77027
Thomas C. Pritchard	officer: General Counsel	3 RIVERWAY, STE. 1800, HOUSTON TX 77056
David Cronin	officer: Chief Engagement Officer	214 JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 200, LAFAYETTE NY 70501