Athenex (Athenex) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Athenex Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Athenex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Athenex Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Athenex's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Athenex (Athenex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Athenex Inc (OTCPK:ATNXQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1001 Main Street, Suite 600, Conventus Building, Buffalo, NY, USA, 14203

Website

https://www.athenex.com

Athenex Inc is a global biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapies for the treatment of cancer. Its current clinical pipeline is derived from Orascovery, based on a P-glycoprotein (P-gp) pump inhibitor, Src Kinase inhibition, T-cell receptor-engineered T-cells, and arginine deprivation therapy technology platforms. It is primarily engaged in conducting research and development activities through corporate collaborators, in-licensing and out-licensing pharmaceutical compounds and technology, conducting preclinical and clinical testing, recruiting personnel, identifying and evaluating additional drug candidates for potential in-licensing or acquisition, and raising capital to support development and commercialization activities.

Executives

Jinn Wu	director	107 MORGAN LANE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Lau Johnson Yiu Nam	director, officer: CEO and Chairman of the Board
Joe Annoni	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Timothy Devere Cook	officer: See Remarks	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET,, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Daniel Lang	officer: Pres Cell Therapy, VP Corp Dev	C/O ATHENEX, INC. CONVENTUS BUILDING, 1001 MAIN ST. STE. 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Jordan Kanfer	director	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Rudolf Kwan	director, officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer	C/O ATHENEX, INC. 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Michael Smolinski	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Steven J. Adams	officer: Interim Chief Acct Officer	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Kim Campbell	director	3300 HYLAND AVE, COSTA MESA CA 92626
William Wei Zuo	officer: President, China	3040 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 1110, HOUSTON TX 77056
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Manson Fok	director	C/O ATHENEX, INC. 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Randoll Sze	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Stephanie A Davis	director	C/O ATHENEX, INC., 1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203