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A V Homes (A V Homes) Predictability Rank


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What is A V Homes Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

A V Homes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

A V Homes Predictability Rank Related Terms

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A V Homes (A V Homes) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » A V Homes Inc (NAS:AVHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XSGO:SOCOVESA BZH HKSE:01902 LEGH TSE:3284 WAR:1AT TSE:1419 TSE:8935 LSE:GLE GRBK TSE:8892 TSE:3457 SHSE:600753 HKSE:03708 ARA TSE:1413 SIC XPAR:HEXA NGO:1869 TSE:6073
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.avhomesinc.com
A V Homes Inc is engaged in the business of homebuilding, community development in Florida, Arizona, and Carolinas. It also engaged in the sale of land for third party development. Firm derives the majority of its revenue from the Florida. The group has built over 7,500 homes nationwide and it has been the recipient of numerous awards for planning and homebuilding accomplishments.
Executives
David Bonderman other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
James G Coulter other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Roger A Cregg director, officer: President and CEO 100 BLOOMFIELD HILL PARKWAY, STE 300, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Tpg Advisors Vi, Inc. other: Former 10% Owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Jonathan Pertchik director C/O TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC., 24601 CENTER RIDGE ROAD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Matthew Coleman director 8601 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 225, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Reuben S Leibowitz director 466 LEXINGTON AVENUE 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dave Gomez officer: EVP, GC and Secretary 7970 SOUTH KYRENE RD., TEMPE AZ 85284
Paul Hackwell director 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Kelvin L. Davis director 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Greg Kranias director C/O TPG CAPITAL, L.P., 301 COMMERCE ST, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Beth Stewart director C/O GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES INC, 110 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Milton H Dresner director C/O HIGHLAND COMPANIES, 28777 NORTHWESTERN HIGHWAY, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Michael P Rama officer: Controller C/O AVATAR HOLDINGS INC, 201 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
William G Spears director 45 ROCKEFELLER PLZ STE 1709, SPEARS GRISANTI & BROWN, NEW YORK NY 10111