Acuity Brands (Acuity Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Acuity Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acuity Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acuity Brands (Acuity Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Acuity Brands Inc (NYSE:AYI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AQ8:Germany AQ8:Germany

Address

1170 Peachtree Street, N.E., Suite 2300, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309

Website

https://www.acuitybrands.com

Acuity Brands Inc is the parent company of Acuity Brands Lighting and other subsidiaries, which provide lighting products for commercial, institutional, industrial, and residential applications. These products include luminaires, lighting controls, lighting components, and integrated lighting systems that use a combination of light sources. Customers include electrical distributors, electric utilities, retail home improvement centers, and lighting showrooms. A majority of the firms' revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Dianne B Mills	officer: SVP & Chief HR Officer	C/O ACUITY BRANDS, INC., 1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, STE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Barry R Goldman	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Laura O'shaughnessy	director	C/O VROOM, INC., 1375 BROADWAY, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10018
Karen J Holcom	officer: Interim CFO	1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 2400, ATLANTA GA 30309
Michael J Bender	director	3980 BAUGHMAN GRANT ROAD, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Marcia J Avedon	director	C/O INGERSOLL-RAND COMPANY, 800-E BEATY STREET, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Mark Sachleben	director	C/O NEW RELIC, INC., 188 SPEAR STREET, STE. 1200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Peter C Browning	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Mary A Winston	director	557 BROADWAY, C/O SCHOLASTIC CORP, NEW YORK NY 10012
Maya Leibman	director	4333 AMON CARTER BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Neil Ashe	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ACUITY BRANDS, INC., 1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, STE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Robert F Mccullough	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 300309
Ray M Robinson	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Dillard George Douglas Jr	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
W. Patrick Battle	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA X1 30309