Birner Dental Management Services (Birner Dental Management Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Birner Dental Management Services Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Birner Dental Management Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Birner Dental Management Services (Birner Dental Management Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Birner Dental Management Services Inc (OTCPK:BDMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.perfectteeth.com

Birner Dental Management Services Inc is engaged in the medical care domain based in the United States. The company provides a solution to the needs of dentists, patients, and third-party payers by allowing its affiliated dentists to provide dental care in patient-friendly, family practice settings. The company offers specialty dental services through affiliated specialists at some of its locations. Dentists practicing at its offices provide general dentistry services, including crowns and bridges and fillings.

Executives

Bradley M Tirpak	director, 10 percent owner	50 ORCHARD ST., NEW YORK NY 10002
John M Climaco	director	PO BOX 326, PARK CITY UT 84060
Joshua Horowitz	director, 10 percent owner	72-38 113TH STREET, APARTMENT 3L, FOREST HILLS NY 11375
Palm Global Small Cap Master Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PALM MANAGEMENT (US) LLC, 19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Palm Management (us) Llc	director, 10 percent owner	19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Bradley C Palmer	10 percent owner	C/O PALM MANAGEMENT (US) LLC, 19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Charles M Gillman	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	1223 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, OFFICE 648, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Star Equity Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	53 FOREST AVE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Barry Igdaloff	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses
Lee D Keddie	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	1110 W. LAKE COOK ROAD SUITE 220 BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089