Berry Global Group (Berry Global Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Berry Global Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Berry Global Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Berry Global Group (Berry Global Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Berry Global Group Inc (NYSE:BERY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BP0:Germany

Address

101 Oakley Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47710

Website

https://www.berryglobal.com

Berry global Group Inc is a leading global supplier of plastic packaging products mainly sold to consumer-oriented end markets. The four business segments are consumer packaging international, consumer packaging North America, engineered materials, and health, hygiene, and specialties. The company primarily uses plastic resin as its raw material, purchased from a variety of suppliers. The majority of revenue comes from consumer packaging international due to the acquisition of RPC, which expanded the geographical areas in which the company operates. The consumer packaging segment consists of closures and dispensing systems, pharmaceutical devices and packaging, bottles and canisters, polythene films, recycling, containers, and technical components.

Executives

James Till	officer: EVP - Controller	C/O 101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Mark W Miles	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BERRY PLASTICS GROUP, INC., 101 OAKLEY ST., EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Carl J Rickertsen	director	MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED, 1850 TOWERS CRESCENT PLAZA, TYSONS CORNER VA 22182
Jason K. Greene	officer: EVP - Chief Legal Officer	C/O BERRY PLASTICS GROUP, INC., 101 OAKLEY ST., EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Evan Bayh	director	3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1000, BETHESDA MD 20814
Kevin J. Kwilinski	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47714
William J Norman	officer: President	C/O BERRY PLASTICS GROUP, INC., 101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Michael Edward Hill	officer: President	C/O 101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Meredith Harper	director	101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Peter T Thomas	director	1000 LAKESIDE AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Chaney Sheffield	director	C/O CANYON PARTNERS, LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 11TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Tom Salmon	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BERRY PLASTICS GROUP, INC., 101 OAKLEY ST., EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Curt Begle	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BERRY PLASTICS GROUP, INC., 101 OAKLEY ST., EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Jill A Rahman	director	101 OAKLEY STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47710
Paula A Sneed	director	THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093