Big 5 Sporting Goods (Big 5 Sporting Goods) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2002. Start your Free Trial

What is Big 5 Sporting Goods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Big 5 Sporting Goods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Big 5 Sporting Goods Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Big 5 Sporting Goods's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Big 5 Sporting Goods (Big 5 Sporting Goods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp (NAS:BGFV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BG3:Germany

Address

2525 East El Segundo Boulevard, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245

Website

https://www.big5sportinggoods.com

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp is a specialty retailer company that is principally engaged in the sale of sporting goods in the western United States. Its product mix includes athletic shoes, apparel, and accessories, as well as a broad selection of outdoor and athletic equipment for team sports, fitness, camping, hunting, fishing, tennis, golf, winter and summer recreation and roller sports. The company operates solely as a sporting goods retailer, which includes both retail stores and an e-commerce platform. The company operates a distribution center located in Riverside, California, that services all of its stores and e-commerce platform.

Executives

Jeffrey L Fraley	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources
Shane O Starr	officer: Senior VP, Operations	C/O BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION, 2525 EAST EL SEGUNDO BOULEVARD, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Jennifer Holden Dunbar	director	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Ian R Landgreen	officer: SVP and General Counsel	2525 EAST EL SEGUNDO BLVD., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Stephen E. Carley	director	6312 SOUTH FIDDLER'S GREEN CIRCLE, SUITE 200N, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Lily W Chang	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Van B Honeycutt	director	3820 STATE ST, SANTA BARBARA CA 93105
Brown Colleen B	director	C/O TRUEBLUE, INC., 1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Barry Emerson	officer: Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer
Steven G Miller	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO
Boyd O Clark	officer: Executive VP, Buying	C/O BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION, 2525 EAST EL SEGUND BLVD, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Luke D Thompson	officer: Executive VP & General Counsel	C/O GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP, 5650 HOLLIS STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
David Jessick	director	15465 SE RIVERSHORE DRIVE, VANCOUVER WA 98683
Michael P. Marrone	officer: Senior VP, Store Operations	C/O BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION, 2525 EAST EL SEGUNDO BLVD., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Sandra N Bane	director