Blackrock Core Bond Trust (Blackrock Core Bond Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Blackrock Core Bond Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blackrock Core Bond Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blackrock Core Bond Trust (Blackrock Core Bond Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Blackrock Core Bond Trust (NYSE:BHK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Bellevue Parkway, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19809

Website

https://www.blackrock.com

Blackrock Core Bond Trust is a closed-end management investment company. Its objective is to provide current income and capital appreciation. The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing a majority of its managed assets in bonds that are investment-grade quality at the time of investment. The trust's investments will include a broad range of bonds, including corporate bonds, U.S. government and agency securities and mortgage-related securities.

Executives

Scott Maclellan	other: Portfolio Manager	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Arthur Philip Steinmetz	director	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Aaron David Wasserman	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Lorenzo Flores	director	2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Richard Cavanagh	director	100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
James Phillip Holloman	director	P.O. BOX 625737, 6800 CINTAS BOULEVARD, CINCINNATI OH 45262
Stayce D. Harris	director	1999 S. BASCOM AVE., SUITE 700, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Trent Walker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PIMCO, 650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Akiva Dickstein	other: Portfolio Manager	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Thomas Musmanno	other: Portfolio Manager	800 SCUDDERS MILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
James Keenan	other: Portfolio Manager	100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Blackrock (singapore) Ltd.	other: Investment Adviser	40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Blackrock Internationl, Ltd.	other: Investment Adviser	800 SCUDDERS MILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Henry Gabbay	director	100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Robert W Fairbairn	director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055

Blackrock Core Bond Trust (Blackrock Core Bond Trust) Headlines

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