What is Biora Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Biora Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Biora Therapeutics (Biora Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4330 La Jolla Village Drive, Suite 300, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122
Biora Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company engaged in developing oral biotherapeutics. Its drug-device combinations could enable new treatment approaches in the delivery of therapeutics in two main areas: Targeted delivery of therapeutics to the site of disease in the gastrointestinal ("GI") tract, which is designed to improve outcomes for patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD); and Systemic delivery of biotherapeutics, which are designed to replace injection with needle-free, oral delivery technology. Geographically, it operates only in the United States.
Executives
| Athyrium Opportunities Iii Co-invest 1 Lp |
10 percent owner |
505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Surbhi Sarna |
director |
ONE PENUMBRA PLACE, ALAMEDA CA 94502 |
| Aditya P. Mohanty |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1010 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501 |
| Jill Ann Howe |
director |
C/O DTX PHARMA, INC., 10655 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Athyrium Capital Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
505 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 18, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Athyrium Opportunities Fund (a) Lp |
10 percent owner |
605 THIRD AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10158 |
| Hutan Hashemi |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
4330 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Damon Silvestry |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
4330 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Jeffrey D. Alter |
director |
4330 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Athyrium Opportunities Iii Acquisition Lp |
10 percent owner |
505 FIFTH AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Harry Stylli |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
3595 JOHN HOPKINS CT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Matthew T Cooper |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
4330 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Athyrium Opportunities Advisers Llc |
10 percent owner |
1209 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104 |
| Athyrium Opportunities Associates Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
1209 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104 |
| Athyrium Opportunities Associates Lp |
10 percent owner |
1209 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104 |
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