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DMC Global (DMC Global) Predictability Rank


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What is DMC Global Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DMC Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DMC Global Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DMC Global's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

DMC Global (DMC Global) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » DMC Global Inc (NAS:BOOM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
OIS CCLP RNGR SOI FET NGS TTI GEOS NR KLXE SLB HAL BKR MIL:TEN FTI SHSE:601808 WFRD NOV CHX ASX:WOR
Traded in Other Exchanges
DM5:Germany
Address
11800 Ridge Parkway, Suite 300, Broomfield, CO, USA, 80021
Website
https://www.dmcglobal.com
DMC Global Inc operates a diversified family of technical product and process businesses serving the energy, industrial and infrastructure markets. Its business is organized into three segments: Arcadia, DynaEnergetics, and NobelClad. Arcadia is a provider of architectural building products and operates in two divisions - Commercial and Residential. NobelClad is involved in the production of explosion-welded clad metal plates for use in the construction of corrosion-resistant industrial processing equipment and specialized transition joints. DynaEnergetics driver, designs manufactures and distributes products utilized by the oil and gas industry principally for the perforation of oil and gas wells.
Executives
Richard P Graff director 2339 WOODBURY LANE, EVERGREEN CO 80439
Ouma Sananikone director C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY LLC, 125 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brett A. Seger officer: Chief Accounting Officer 11800 RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Eric V. Walter officer: Chief Financial Officer 11800 RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Chilcoff James W. Jr. officer: President of Arcadia 11800 RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Robert A Cohen director C/O DYNAMIC MATERIALS, INC., 5405 SPINE ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Kevin T Longe director, officer: President and CEO C/O LYDALL, INC., ONE COLONIAL ROAD, P.O. BOX 151, MANCHESTER CT 06045-0151
James Schladen officer: President of Arcadia 11800 RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
David C Aldous director C/O DYNAMIC MATERIALS, INC., 5405 SPINE ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Michael Kuta officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DYNAMIC MATERIALS CORPORATION, 5405 SPINE ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Antoine Nobili officer: President of NobelClad 11800 RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Michelle H Shepston officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O DYNAMIC MATERIALS CORPORATION, 5405 SPINE ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Yvon Pierre Cariou director
Ruth Dreessen director 6850 VERSAR CENTER, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151
Ian Grieves officer: Pres & Gen Mgr, DynaEnergetics C/O DYNAMIC MATERIALS, INC., 5405 SPINE ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301