What is BP Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BP Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BP Midstream Partners LP (BP Midstream Partners LP) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
501 Westlake Park Boulevard, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
BP Midstream Partners LP is a US-based limited partnership. It owns, operates, develops, and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets. The company holds interests in entities that own crude oil, natural gas, refined products, and diluent pipelines serving as key infrastructure for the company to transport onshore crude oil production to whiting refinery and offshore crude oil and natural gas production. It transports oil and gas products to refining markets and trading and distribution hubs.
Executives
| Starlee Sykes |
director |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BLVD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Jack T Collins |
director |
210 PARK AVENUE SUITE 2750 OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102 |
| David Kurt |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Derek Rush |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BLVD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Craig Coburn |
director, officer: See Remarks |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Michele F Joy |
director |
910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Robert A Malone |
director |
3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032 |
| Gerald J Maret |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Robert P Zinsmeister |
director, officer: See Remarks |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Clive Christison |
director |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Mark E Frena |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Douglas Sparkman |
director |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Walter Clements |
director |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Bp Midstream Partners Gp Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Bp Midstream Partners Holdings Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
501 WESTLAKE PARK BOULEVARD HOUSTON TX 77079 |
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