Alon Blue Square Israel (Alon Blue Square Israel) Predictability Rank

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What is Alon Blue Square Israel Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alon Blue Square Israel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alon Blue Square Israel (Alon Blue Square Israel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Alon Blue Square Israel Ltd (OTCPK:BSIRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.bsi.co.il

Alon Blue Square Israel Ltd was incorporated in June 1988 as a company under the laws of the State of Israel. The Company owns and operates supermarkets and retail outlets. It operates in four reporting segments: Supermarkets, Fueling and Commercial sites, Non-Food Retail & Wholesale, and Real Estate. In its Supermarkets segment, it is a food retailer in the State of Israel. In its Fueling and Commercial Sites segment, it operates a chain of filling stations and convenience stores in different formats in Israel. In its 'Non-Food' segment, it sells 'Non-Food' items both in its supermarkets and in stand alone outlets. In its Real Estate segment, it owns leases and develops yield-generating commercial properties and residency projects. Through its supermarkets, it offers a range of food and beverage products and 'Non-Food' items, such as houseware, small electrical appliances, computers and computer accessories, entertainment products and textile products, and 'Near-Food' products, such as health and beauty aids, products for babies, cosmetics and hygiene products. It also operates several houseware departments within its large stores. Through its stand alone 'Non-Food' outlets, it offers a range of houseware and home textile, toys, leisure and baby products. The Company competes with the other supermarket chain, Shufersal, low-priced smaller supermarket chains, independent grocers, open-air markets, and other retailers selling supermarket goods. Its non-food business is subject to Israeli laws relating to imports, customs, labeling of products and consumer protection laws, as well as to labor laws and license and permit laws as apply to the operation of its network of stores. The Company is subject to safety tests, quality control and certification by the Standards Institution of Israel.

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