CalAmp (CalAmp) Predictability Rank

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What is CalAmp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CalAmp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CalAmp (CalAmp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » CalAmp Corp (NAS:CAMP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CF3:Germany

Address

15635 Alton Parkway, Suite 250, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.calamp.com

CalAmp Corp provides wireless communications solutions applications to customers. The company's products, software, and application services are sold into a broad array of market verticals, including transportation, government, construction, and automotive to customers in the United States; Latin America; Europe the Middle East, and Africa; Asia-Pacific; and others. Its business activities are organized into its Telematics Systems and Software & Subscription Services. The Telematics Systems segment offers a series of Mobile Resource Management ('MRM') telematics products and applications. The software & Subscription Services segment offers cloud-based application enablement and telematics service platforms.

Executives

Wes Cummins	director	4505 LORRAINE AVE, DALLAS TX 75205
Jikun Kim	officer: Chief Financial Officer	181 W. HUNTINGTON DRIVE, SUITE 202, MONROVIA CA 91016
Jeffery R Gardner	director	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Xiaolian Zhang	officer: SVP, CFO (interim)	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
Erik Schulz	officer: Chief Acctg Officer (interim)	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
272 Capital Lp	director, other: See Remarks	3811 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, SUITE 2100, DALLAS TX 75219
Brennen Carson	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
Berkel Monica Van	officer: Chief People Officer	10420 RESEARCH ROAD, SE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87123
Richard M. Scott	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
Jeffrey P. Clark	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
Nathan Lowstuter	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O CALAMP CORP., 15635 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92618
Kurtis Joseph Binder	officer: Executive VP & CFO	C/O VIZIO HOLDINGS, INC., 39 TESLA, IRVINE CA 92618
Henry J Maier	director	1000 FEDEX DRIVE, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Kirsten O. Wolberg	director	900 NORTH MCCARTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Amal M Johnson	director	C/O MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SUNNYVALE CA 94085