Avid Bioservices (Avid Bioservices) Predictability Rank

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What is Avid Bioservices Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avid Bioservices Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avid Bioservices (Avid Bioservices) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Avid Bioservices Inc (NAS:CDMO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TEHN:Germany

Address

14191 Myford Road, Tustin, CA, USA, 92780

Website

https://www.avidbio.com

Avid Bioservices Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and Current Good Manufacturing Practices (CGMP) of biopharmaceutical products derived from mammalian cell culture. The company provides a comprehensive range of process development and high-quality CGMP clinical and commercial manufacturing services for the biotechnology and biopharmaceutical industries.

Executives

Matthew R. Kwietniak	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	14191 MYFORD ROAD, TUSTIN CA 92780
Richard A. Richieri	officer: Chief Operations Officer	14191 MYFORD ROAD, TUSTIN CA 92780
Daniel Ryan Hart	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2642 MICHELLE DR., SUITE 200, TUSTIN CA 62780
Mark R Ziebell	officer: V.P., General Counsel	14282 FRANKLIN AVENUE, TUSTIN CA 92780
Richard B Hancock	director	14282 FRANKLIN AVE., TUSTIN CA 92780
Joseph Carleone	director	3883 HOWARD HUGHES PKWY, SUITE 700, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Nicholas Stewart Green	director, officer: President & CEO	2642 MICHELLE DRIVE, SUITE 200, TUSTIN CA 92780
Gregory Sargen	director
Esther M. Alegria	director	2642 MICHELLE DRIVE, SUITE 200, TUSTIN CA 92780
Mark R Bamforth	director	500 KENDALL ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jeanne Thoma	director	C/O ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 210 MAIN STREET WEST, BAUDETTE MN 56623
Patrick D Walsh	director	14282 FRANKLIN AVE., TUSTIN CA 92780
Catherine J Mackey	director	3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Joel Mccomb	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Stephen Michael Hedberg	officer: Principal Fin. & Acct. Officer	2642 MICHELLE DRIVE, SUITE 200, TUSTIN CA 92780