ClearOne (ClearOne) Predictability Rank

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What is ClearOne Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ClearOne Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ClearOne Predictability Rank Related Terms

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ClearOne (ClearOne) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » ClearOne Inc (NAS:CLRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5225 Wiley Post Way, Suite 500, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84116

Website

https://www.clearone.com

ClearOne Inc is a communications solutions company, which is engaged in designing, developing, and selling conferencing, collaboration, streaming, and digital signage solutions for audio, video, and visual communication. It sells its commercial products to end-users primarily through a network of independent distributors, who in turn sells its products to dealers, systems integrators, and other resellers. Its products include professional audio, network media streaming, and professional microphones. Geographically the firm has its business presence across the US and international market.

Executives

Edward D Bagley	director, 10 percent owner	2350 OAK HILL LANE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Larry Hendricks	director	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Derek Graham	officer: Interim CEO	C/O CLEARONE, INC., 5225 WILEY POST WAY, STE. 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Clearone, Inc.	officer: Interim CEO	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Zeynep Hakimoglu	officer: VP of Product Management	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Bruce Whaley	director	C/O CLEARONE, EDGEWATER CORPORATE PARK, S. TOWER, 5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Narasimhan Narayanan	officer: VP FINANCE	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84116
Lisa Higley	director	C/O CLEARONE INC., 5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
E Bryan Bagley	10 percent owner	1470 ARLINGTON DR, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103
Scott Huntsman	director	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Brad Baldwin	director	3607 APPLEMILL COVE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109
Eric L Robinson	director	551 EAST INDIAN SPRINGS ROAD, BOUNTIFUL UT 84010
Michael J Braithwaite	officer: SVP	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84116
Joseph Paul Sorrentino	officer: EXEC VP OF SALES	1825 RESEARCH WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84119
Mark Allen Fletcher	officer: VP OF WORLDWIDE SALES	5225 WILEY POST WAY, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116