Century Casinos (Century Casinos) Predictability Rank

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What is Century Casinos Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Century Casinos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Century Casinos Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Century Casinos (Century Casinos) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Century Casinos Inc (NAS:CNTY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CNT:Germany

Address

455 East Pikes Peak Avenue, Suite 210, Colorado Springs, CO, USA, 80903

Website

https://www.cnty.com

Century Casinos Inc is a casino entertainment company that develops and operates gaming establishments as well as related lodging, restaurant, horse racing (including off-track betting), and entertainment facilities in North America. The company has three reportable segments based on the geographical locations in which its casinos operate; United States; Century Casino & Hotel-Central City, and Century Casino & Hotel-Cripple Creek in Colorado, Mountaineer Casino, Racetrack & Resort in West Virginia, and Century Casino Caruthersville, and Century Casino Cape Girardeau in Missouri, Canada; Century Casino & Hotel, Century Casino St. Albert, Century Mile Racetrack in Edmonton and Casino Century Downs Racetrack and Casino in Calgary, and Poland; Casinos Poland.

Executives

Peter Hoetzinger	director, officer: Vice Chairman/Co CEO/President	200 EAST BENNETT AVE, CRIPPLE CREEK CO 80813
Nikolaus Strohriegel	officer: Vice President of Operations	455 E PIKES PEAK AVE STE 210, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80908
Haitzmann Erwin Et Al	director, officer: Chairman of the Board/Co CEO	2200 EAST BENNETT AVE, CRIPPLE CREEK CO 80813
Andreas Terler	officer: Vice President of Operations	455 E PIKES PEAK AVE STE 210, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80908
Smith Geoffrey Donald Cumming	officer: SENIOR V.P. OPERATIONS	455 E PIKES PEAK AVE STE 210, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80903
Dinah Corbaci	director	ANZENGRUBERGASSE 24/25, VIENNA C4 1050
Timothy Allen Wright	officer: Vice President - Controller	455 E PIKES PEAK AVE, SUITE 210, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80903
Eduard M Berger	director	455 E PIKES PEAK AVE STE 210, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80903
Gottfried Schellmann	director	HANS WEIGELGASSE 5, MARIA ENZERSDORF C4 A-02340
Robert S Eichberg	director	1801 CALIFORNIA ST, SUITE 4550, DENVER CO 80202
Margaret Stapleton	officer: EVP/PFO	2860 SOUTH CIRCLE DRIVE, SUITE 350, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Larry Hannappel	officer: CAO/Secretary/Treasurer	200 EAST BENNETT AVE, CRIPPLE CREEK CO 80813
Christian Gernert	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1263 LAKE PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE A, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Raymond W Sienko	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1263 A. LAKE PLAZA DR., COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80906
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner