What is Cosmos Health Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cosmos Health Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cosmos Health (Cosmos Health) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
141 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 4236, Chicago, IL, USA, 60604
Cosmos Health Inc is engaged in the nutraceuticals sector through its own proprietary lines of products 'Sky Premium Life' and 'Mediterranation'. Additionally, the firm is operating in the pharmaceutical sector through the provision of a broad line of branded over-the-counter drugs and branded and generic medicines. The company's focus will be on Branded Pharmaceuticals, Over-the-Counter medicines, and Generic Pharmaceuticals. It provides its products to wholesale drug distributors, wholesalers, and retail healthcare providers.
Executives
| Grigorios Siokas |
10 percent owner |
5 AG. GEORGIOU STR., PILEA, THESSALONIKI J3 TK57001 |
| Suhel Bhutawala |
director |
141 WEST JACKSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 4236, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
| Nikolaos Bardakis |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
141 WEST JACKSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 4236, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
| Manfred Ziegler |
director |
141 WEST JACKSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 4236, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
| Anastasios Aslidis |
director |
11 CANTERBURY LANE, WATCHUNG NJ 07069 |
| Pavlos Ignatiades |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
KALAPATHAKI 5, PANORAMA, THESSALONIKI J3 55236 |
| Georgios Terzis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2 MELITOS STR., NEA SMIRNI, ATTICA J3 17121 |
| Peter Goldstein |
director |
151 NORTH NOB HILL ROAD SUITE 321, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33324 |
| John James Hoidas |
director |
9301 S. HARLEM AVENUE, OAK LAWN, CHICAGO IL 60453 |
| Dimitrios Goulielmos |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
141 WEST JACKSON BLVD, SUITE 4236, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
| Panagiotis Tolis |
director, officer: Secretary |
PERICLEOUS 50 STREET, ATHENS J3 15232 |
| Panagiotis Drakopoulos |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Vasileios Mavrogiannis |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CFO |
TERTSETI 23 STREET, KESARIANI J3 16122 |
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