China Pharma Holding (China Pharma Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is China Pharma Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Pharma Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China Pharma Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Pharma Holding (China Pharma Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » China Pharma Holding Inc (OTCPK:CPHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Second Floor, No. 17, Jinpan Road, Hainan Province, Haikou, CHN, 570216

Website

https://www.chinapharmaholdings.com

China Pharma Holding Inc is a drug manufacturing company. It is mainly engaged in the development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products for human use in connection with a variety of high-incidence and high-mortality diseases and medical conditions prevalent in the People's Republic of China. The company mainly manufactures pharmaceutical products in the form of dry powder injectables, liquid injectables, tablets, capsules, and cephalosporin oral solutions. The product line of the company includes cefaclor dispersible tablets, clarithromycin granules, roxithromycin dispersible tablets, andrographolide tablets, ozagrel sodium for injection, gastrodin injection, and others.

Executives

Ke Deng	10 percent owner	NO.17, JINPAN ROAD, SECOND FLOOR, HAIKOU F4 570216
Frank Waung	officer: Chief Financial Officer	72 GREAT HILLS RD., SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
G Michael Bennett	director	4/F, NO. 3 JINYUAN ROAD, DAXING DISTRICT INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT A, BEIJING F4 102600
Yingwen Zhang	director	NO. 5, UNIT 1, BLDG. 4, NO. 14 XIN NAN ZHI RD., CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610041
Baowen Dong	director	NO.9, BLDG. 9, SOUTH PARK, NO. 24, SECTION 1, 1ST RING ROAD, CHENGDU, SICHUAN F4 610041
Heung Mei Tsui	director, 10 percent owner	FLAT F, 3RD FL., MAYSON GARDEN BLDG., 68 HING FAT ST., CAUSEWAY BAY, HONG KONG F4 XXXXX
Zhilin Li	officer: President and CEO	2/F JIAHAI BLDG., NO. 17 JINPAN ROAD, JINPAN INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT, HAIKOU, HAINAN PROVINCE F4 570216
Jian Yang	officer: Secretary	NO. 1 HAOYUAN ROAD, XINHUA DISTRICT, HAIKOU, HAINAN PROVI F4 570216
Xinhua Wu	officer: CFO	2/F JIAHAI BLDG., NO. 17 JINPAN ROAD, JINPAN INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT, HAIKOU, HAINAN PROVI F4 570216
George L Diamond	10 percent owner	174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
David F Brigante	10 percent owner	174FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Marat Rosenberg	10 percent owner	17 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Halter Financial Investments Lp	10 percent owner	174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Halter Financial Investments Gp Llc	10 percent owner	174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Timothy P Halter	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President & CFO	174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226