Cepton (Cepton) Predictability Rank

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What is Cepton Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cepton Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cepton (Cepton) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cepton Inc (NAS:CPTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

399 West Trimble Road, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131

Website

https://www.cepton.com

Cepton Inc provides lidar-based solutions for a range of markets such as automotive, smart cities, smart spaces and smart industrial applications. The company's patented MMT-based lidar technology enables reliable, scalable and cost-effective solutions that deliver long range, high resolution 3D perception for smart applications.

Executives

Ming Qiu	officer: Controller	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Liqun Han	officer: SVP of Operations	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Jun Pei	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Mark Mccord	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Hideharu Konagaya	director	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Paul Anawalt	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Hull Xu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Jinying Chen	officer: Corporate Controller	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Ldv Partners Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	24201 SUMMERHILL AVENUE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Xiaogang Zhang	director	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	4-8-3, TAKANAWA, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 1088711
May Wang	director	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Winston S Fu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CFO and Secretary	24201 SUMMERHILL AVENUE, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Takayuki Katsuda	director	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Dongyi Liao	officer: SVP of Applications	C/O CEPTON, INC., 399 W. TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131