Crawford United (Crawford United) Predictability Rank

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What is Crawford United Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Crawford United Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Crawford United (Crawford United) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Crawford United Corp (OTCPK:CRAWA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10514 Dupont Avenue, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44108

Website

https://www.crawfordunited.com

Crawford United Corp is engaged in providing specialty industrial products to diverse markets of healthcare, education, automotive, aerospace, trucking, and petrochemical. The company operates through the following segments, namely Commercial Air Handling Equipment, which is into designing, manufacturing, and installing large-scale commercial, institutional, and industrial custom air handling solutions; and Industrial & Transportation Products, which is into the manufacture of flexible interlocking metal hoses and the distribution of silicone and hydraulic hoses. The company's geographical segments include the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Canada, and Others.

Executives

Matthew V Crawford	director
Edward F Crawford	director
James W Wert	director
Jay Daly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10514 DUPONT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44108
Luis Enrique Jimenez	director	10514 DUPONT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44108
George Richard Hart	officer: Vice President of Engineering	C/O HICKOK INCORPORATED, 10514 DUPONT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44108
Kelly Kuna	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6050 OAK TREE BLVD., SUITE #500, CLEVELAND OH 44131
Steven Rosen	director, 10 percent owner	25101 CHAGRIN BOULEVARD SUITE 350, BEACHWOOD OH 44122
Brian E Powers	director	25101 CHAGRIN BLVD., SUITE 210, CLEVELAND OH 44122
Three Bears Trust	10 percent owner	1660 WEST 2ND STREET, SUITE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44122
Jennifer Aplin Elliot	director, 10 percent owner	1178 BELLINGHAM DR., OCEANSIDE CA 92057
Roundball Llc	10 percent owner	1660 WEST 2ND STREET SUITE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44113
Kirin Smith	director	C/O HICKOK INCORPORATED, 10514 DUPONT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44108
Patrick R Bauman	officer: Vice President Sales/Marketing	851 STUART AVENUE, SOUTH EUCLID OH 44121
James F Allen	officer: Vice President Manufacturing	1307 JANE LANE, GREENWOOD MS 38930