Champions Oncology (Champions Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Champions Oncology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Champions Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Champions Oncology (Champions Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Champions Oncology Inc (NAS:CSBR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2I3:Germany

Address

One University Plaza, Suite 307, Hackensack, NJ, USA, 07601

Website

https://www.championsoncology.com

Champions Oncology Inc is a us-based company which is engaged in the development and sale of advanced technology solutions and products to personalize the development and use of oncology drugs. The company operates through one segment namely Personalized Oncology Solutions (POS) and Translational Oncology Solutions (TOS). Its POS business assists physicians in developing personalized treatment options for their cancer patients through tumor specific data obtained from drug panels and related personalized oncology services. The TOS business assists pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies with their drug development process and offers studies or license tumors for use in studies.

Executives

Daniel Newman Mendelson	director	COVENTRY HEALTH CARE, INC., 6705 ROCKLEDGE DR, SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Ronnie Morris	director, officer: President	855 N. WOLFE STREET, SUITE 619, BALTIMORE MD 21205
Philip P. Breitfeld	director	ONE UNIVERSITY PLAZA, SUITE 307, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
New Enterprise Associates 14, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Neeraj Agrawal	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Roger H Lee	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Michael Maurice Brown	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Battery Management Corp.	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
R David Tabors	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Jesse Feldman	10 percent owner	ONE MARINA PARK DRIVE, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02210
Joel Ackerman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	COVENTRY HEALTH CARE, INC., 6705 ROCKLEDGE DR SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Patrick J Kerins	10 percent owner
Ryan D Drant	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Nea 14 Gp, Ltd	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea Partners 14, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093