Catalent (Catalent) Predictability Rank

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What is Catalent Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Catalent Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Catalent Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Catalent (Catalent) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Catalent Inc (NYSE:CTLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0C8:Germany 0C8:Germany

Address

14 Schoolhouse Road, Somerset, NJ, USA, 08873

Website

https://www.catalent.com

Catalent is a contract development and manufacturing organization, or CDMO. It operates under four segments: biologics, softgel and oral technologies, oral and specialty delivery, and clinical supply services. Catalent derives its revenues primarily from long-term supply agreements with pharmaceutical customers. The company provides a range of development and manufacturing solutions for drugs, protein-based biologics, cell and gene therapies, and consumer health products throughout the entire life cycle of a product from the drug development process to commercial supply. Catalent has over 50 facilities across four continents.

Executives

David Mcerlane	officer: Group President, Biologics	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Steven Barg	director	ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michelle R Ryan	director	214 PARK BLVD S, VENICE FL 34285
John J Greisch	director	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Stephanie Okey	director	C/O ALBIREO PHARMA, INC., 10 POST OFFICE SQUARE, SUITE 502 SOUTH, BOSTON MA 02109
Frank A Damelio	director	C/O PFIZER INC., 235 EAST 42ND ST., NEW YORK NY 10017
Aristippos Gennadios	officer: See Remarks	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Thomas W Hawkeswood	officer: Pres. Pharma Prod Delivery Div	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Patricia Hunt	officer: Pres. Consumer Health Div	C/O CATALENT, 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Ricky Hopson	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Lorenzo Carletti	officer: SVP Global Ops Small Molecule	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Ricardo Pravda	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Alessandro Maselli	officer: See remarks	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Charles Lickfold	officer: SVP, CIO	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Scott Gunther	officer: See Remarks	C/O CATALENT, INC., 14 SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD, SOMERSET NJ 08873