What is Cutera Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cutera Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cutera (Cutera) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3240 Bayshore Boulevard, Brisbane, CA, USA, 94005
Cutera Inc is a medical device company. It specializes in the design, development, manufacture, marketing and servicing of laser and other energy based aesthetics systems for practitioners internationally. Its products include enlighten, excel HR, excel V, Xeo and Trusculpt 3D among others. The company markets and sells its products under the trademarks such as Cutera, Acutip, Coolglide, Enlighten, Excel HR, Excel V, Genesis plus, Pico-genesis, Titan, Trusculpt, and Xeo among others. It derives the majority of its revenue from the United States geographic segment.
Executives
| Taylor C. Harris |
director |
6035 STONERIDGE DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Stuart Drummond |
officer: Interim Chief Financial Office |
C/O CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BLVD., BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Jeffrey S Jones |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O RELIANT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 464 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Kevin J Cameron |
director |
C/O KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Nicholas Sheridan Lewin |
director |
3 WEST 57TH ST., 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Keith J Sullivan |
director |
C/O RELIANT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 464 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| David H Mowry |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
9775 TOLEDO, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Rohan Seth |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BLVD., BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Timothy J Oshea |
director |
C/O CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BLVD., BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Juliane Park |
director |
C/O CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BLVD., BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Janet D. Widmann |
director |
1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202 |
| J Daniel Plants |
director |
ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1140, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Katherine S Zanotti |
director |
431 E 9TH STREET, HINSDALE IL 60521 |
| Joseph E Whitters |
director |
|
| Sheila Hopkins |
director |
C/O WARNACO INC, 90 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CUTR has been successfully added to your