Consolidated Water Co (Consolidated Water Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Consolidated Water Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Consolidated Water Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Consolidated Water Co (Consolidated Water Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Consolidated Water Co Ltd (NAS:CWCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CW2:Germany CW2:Germany

Address

West Bay Road, 4th Floor, Windward Three, P.O. Box 1114, Regatta Office Park, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1102

Website

https://www.cwco.com

Consolidated Water Co Ltd is a water utility company. It develops and operates seawater desalination plants and water distribution systems. The company's business segments are; The retail segment operates the water utility for the Seven Mile Beach and West Bay areas of Grand Cayman Island, The bulk segment supplies potable water to government utilities in Grand Cayman and The Bahamas under long-term contracts, The services segment designs, constructs and sells water infrastructure and provides management and operating services to third parties, and The manufacturing segment manufactures and services a wide range of custom and specialized water-related products applicable to commercial, municipal and industrial water production, supply and treatment.

Executives

Raymond Whittaker	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Clarence B. Flowers	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Wilmer F. Pergande	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Richard Finlay	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Todd Redding	officer: VP OF PURCHASING & LOGISTICS	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Robert B. Morrison	officer: VP of Procurement & Logistics	PO BOX 31017, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Douglas R. Vizzini	officer: VP of Finance	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Armando Averhoff	officer: VP of Information Technology	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Brent Brodie	officer: VP of Sales and Marketing	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Ramjeet Jerrybandan	officer: EXECUTIVE VP OF OPERATIONS	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Frederick W. Mctaggart	director, officer: President and CEO	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
John Tonner	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	7256 NW 108TH WAY, PARKLAND FL 33706
David Sasnett	officer: EVP & CFO	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Leonard J Sokolow	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Carson K. Ebanks	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102