City National (City National) Predictability Rank

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What is City National Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

City National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

City National Predictability Rank Related Terms

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City National (City National) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » City National Corp (NYSE:CYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cnb.com

City National Corp is a Delaware corporation organized in 1968. It is a bank holding company and a financial holding company. It provides banking, investment and trust services to its clients through its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, City National Bank. The Bank operates through 77 offices, including 16 full-service regional centers, in Southern California, the San Francisco Bay area, Nevada, New York City, Nashville, Tennessee and Atlanta, Georgia. The Company provides financial solutions to affluent individuals, entrepreneurs, professionals, their businesses and their families. The Company's segments include, Commercial and Private Banking, & Wealth Management. The Commercial and Private Banking segment provides banking products and services, including commercial and mortgage lending, lines of credit, equipment lease financing, deposits, cash management services, international trade finance and letters of credit. All investment advisory affiliates and the Bank's wealth management services are included in the Wealth Management segment. The Company's principal client base consists of small to mid-sized businesses, entrepreneurs, professionals, and affluent individuals. The Company serves its clients through relationship banking. The Company offers lending, deposit, cash management, international banking, equipment financing, and other products and services. The Bank's wealth management division make available the following investment advisory and wealth management resources to the Company's clients: investment management and advisory services and brokerage services, including portfolio management, securities trading and asset management; personal and business trust and investment services, including employee benefit trust services, 401(k) and defined benefit plans; and estate and financial planning and custodial services. The Company also advises and makes available mutual funds under the name of City National Rochdale Funds. The Bank's wealth management division and the Company's asset management subsidiaries provide both proprietary and nonproprietary products to offer asset classes and investment styles, including fixed-income instruments, mutual funds, domestic and international equities and alternative investments, such as hedge funds. Investment services are provided to institutional as well as individual clients. The Company faces competitive credit and pricing pressure as it competes with other banks and financial organizations. It is subject to extensive regulation under both federal and state law.

Executives

Russell D Goldsmith	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORP ,GENERAL COUNSEL, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Clifford Gilbert-lurie	director	555 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ashok Israni	director	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bruce Rosenblum	director	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Brian Fitzmaurice	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER ST., 18TH FL., LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Robert H Tuttle	director	C/O TUTTLE-CLICK AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 9701 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 1100, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Christopher J Warmuth	director, officer: EVP of Issuer; Pres. of Sub	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORP ,GENERAL COUNSEL, 555 SOUTH FLOWER STREET, 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Bram Goldsmith	director, officer: Chairman Emeritus of the Board	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORP ,GENERAL COUNSEL, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Christopher J Carey	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORP., GENERAL COUNSEL, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Michael B Cahill	officer: EVP, General Counsel, Sect.	CITY NATIONAL BANK, 555 S. FLOWER ST., 18TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Kenneth L Coleman	director	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Peter M Thomas	director	2300 W. SAHARA AVENUE, BOX ONE, LAS VEGAS NV 89102
Mohamad Ali	director	2 AVENUE DE LAFAYETTE, BOSTON MA 02111
Richard Bloch	director	C/O CLB PARTNERS, P.O. BOX 2569, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067-2569
Olga Tsokova	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CITY NATIONAL CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071