What is Dolphin Entertainment Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dolphin Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Dolphin Entertainment (Dolphin Entertainment) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
150 Alhambra Circle, Suite 1200, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134
Dolphin Entertainment Inc is an entertainment marketing and content development company. It provides strategic marketing and publicity services to many of the top brands, both individual and corporate, in the film, television, music, gaming and hospitality industries. Viewpoint Creative and Be Social complement the efforts with full-service creative branding and production capabilities as well as social media and influencer marketing services.
Executives
| William Iv O'dowd |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2151 LE JEUNE ROAD, SUITE 150 MEZZANINE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Nelson Famadas |
director |
804 DOUGLAS ROAD, STE 365, MIAMI FL 33134 |
| M Shanken Communications Inc |
10 percent owner |
825 EIGHTH AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Marvin Shanken |
10 percent owner |
825 FIFTH AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Mirta A Negrini |
director, officer: CFO & COO |
C/O DOLPHIN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 150 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 1200, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Nicholas Stanham |
director |
C/O DOLPHIN DIGITAL MEDIA, INC., 2151 LE JEUNE ROAD, SUITE 150-MEZZANINE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Charles Joseph Dougiello |
director |
208 JAVA ST., BROOKLYN NY 11222 |
| Claudia Ann Grillo |
director |
11700 NE 6 AVE, BISCAYNE PARK FL 33161 |
| Anthony A. Leo |
director |
1251 14TH STREET, SUITE 209, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Allan Mayer |
director |
C/O DOLPHIN DIGITAL MEDIA, INC., 2151 LE JEUNE ROAD, SUITE 150 MEZZANINE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Justo L. Pozo |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O DOLPHIN DIGITAL MEDIA, INC., 2151 LEJEUNE ROAD, SUITE 150-MEZZANINE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Pozo Opportunity Fund Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
700 BILTMORE WAY - 1011, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Michael Espensen |
director |
804 DOUGLAS ROAD, SUITE 365, MIAMI FL 33134 |
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