Dnow (DNOW) Predictability Rank

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What is Dnow Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dnow Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dnow (DNOW) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Dnow Inc (NYSE:DNOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

11N:Germany 11N:Germany

Address

7402 North Eldridge Parkway, Houston, TX, USA, 77041

Website

https://www.distributionnow.com

Dnow Inc is a company engaged in worldwide supplying of energy and industrial products and packaged, engineered process and production equipment with a legacy of over one sixty years. They offer a broad set of supply chain solutions combined with a suite of digital solutions branded as DigitalNOW that provide customers world-class technology for digital commerce, data and information management. Its locations provide products and solutions to exploration and production companies, midstream transmission and storage companies, refineries, chemical companies, utilities, mining, municipal water, manufacturers, engineering and construction companies as well as companies operating in the decarbonization, energy transition and renewables end markets.

Executives

Karen David-green	director	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN LLP, 800 CAPITOL ST., SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
David A Cherechinsky	officer: Sr. Vice President and CFO	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Sonya Reed	director	4 TESSENEER DRIVE, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS KY 41076
Fanny R. Surratt	officer: See Remarks	NOW INC., C/O RAYMOND CHANG, 7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Kelly T. Munson	officer: See Remarks	NOW INC., C/O RAYMOND CHANG, 7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Richard J Alario	director	C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
Paul M Coppinger	director
Rodney W Eads	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
J. Wayne Richards	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Galen Cobb	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Terry Bonno	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
James Crandell	director	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Daniel L Molinaro	officer: Executive Vice President	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Mark B Johnson	officer: See Remarks	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041
Raymond W Chang	officer: VP and General Counsel	7402 NORTH ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77041