DNP Selectome Fund (DNP Selectome Fund) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

What is DNP Selectome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DNP Selectome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

DNP Selectome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DNP Selectome Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

DNP Selectome Fund (DNP Selectome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » DNP Select Income Fund Inc (NYSE:DNP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1900, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.dpimc.com

DNP Select Income Fund Inc is a closed-ended investment management fund. The primary investment objectives of the fund are current income and long-term growth of income. Its secondary objective is capital appreciation. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing in the public utility industry.

Executives

Daniel Petrisko	officer: VP and Asst. Secy.	800 SCUDDERS HILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Grumhaus David D Jr.	other: Officer of the Adviser	200 S. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60606
Luecke Connie M	other: Officer of the Adviser	55 E MONROE ST SUITE 3600, CHICAGO IL 60603
Kyle P. West	other: Portfolio Manager	DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., 200 S. WACKER DR., SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60606
Mareile B. Cusack	director	DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60640
Timothy P. Riordan	officer: Vice President	DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60640
Kathleen Hegyi	officer: CCO	C/O DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
David J Vitale	director	C/O DNP SELECT INCOME FUND INC., 55 EAST MONROE ST, CHICAGO IL 60603
Robert J Genetski	director	195 N. HARBOR DR, SUITE 4903, CHICAGO IL 60601
Metlife Investment Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981
Hoffman Clifford W. Jr.	director	C/O DUFF & PHELPS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 200 E. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Philip R Mcloughlin	director	800 SCUDDERS HILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Voya Financial, Inc.	10 percent owner	230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169
Lion Connecticut Holdings Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE ORANGE WAY, WINDSOR CT 06095
Ing Life Insurance & Annuity Co	10 percent owner	ONE ORANGE WAY, WINDSOR CT 06095-4774