DTE Energy Co (DTE Energy Co) Predictability Rank

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What is DTE Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DTE Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DTE Energy Co (DTE Energy Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » DTE Energy Co (NYSE:DTE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

ETR FE ES PPL AEE WEC EIX CNP CMS XEL NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

DGY:Germany DGY:Germany

Address

One Energy Plaza, Detroit, MI, USA, 48226-1279

Website

https://www.dteenergy.com

DTE Energy owns two regulated utilities in Michigan that contribute 90% of earnings. DTE Electric serves approximately 2.3 million customers in southeastern Michigan, including Detroit. DTE Gas serves 1.3 million customers throughout the state. In addition, DTE has nonutility businesses and investments including energy marketing and trading, renewable natural gas facilities, and on-site industrial energy projects.

Executives

Joann Chavez	officer: Sr VP & Chief Legal Officer	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, 1610 WCB, DETROIT MI 48226
Deborah L Byers	director	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Lisa A. Muschong	officer: Corporate Secretary	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Tracy J Myrick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, 1610 WCB, DETROIT MI 48226
Robert A. Richard	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Joi M. Harris	officer: Pres. & COO - DTE Gas Company	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Trevor F Lauer	officer: President and COO-DTE Electric	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Gerard M Anderson	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, LEGAL DEPARTMENT, DETROIT MI 48226
David A Thomas	director	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Mark C. Rolling	officer: VP Controller & CAO	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
David E Meador	officer: Vice Chairman and CAO	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Matthew T. Paul	officer: President & COO DTE Gas Co.	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, 1610 WCB, DETROIT MI 48226
Peter B Oleksiak	officer: Sr. Vice President and CFO	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Mark W Stiers	officer: President and COO - DTE Gas	ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226
Gary Torgow	director	235 EAST MAIN STREET, MIDLAND MI 48640