Dynegy (Dynegy) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Dynegy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dynegy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dynegy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dynegy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Dynegy (Dynegy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Dynegy Inc (NYSE:DYNPRA.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.dynegy.com

Dynegy is a wholesale power provider operating in the Midwest, the Northeast, and the West. The company operates a mix of natural gas and coal capacity. Dynegy's capacity consists of baseload, intermediate, and peak power plants. Dynegy also operates a retail energy supply business.

Executives

Ecp Controlco, Llc	10 percent owner	40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Energy Capital Partners Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Iii-a, Lp	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Iii-c, Lp	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Tyler Reeder	director	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Terawatt Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Terawatt Holdings, Lp	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Gp Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Energy Capital Partners Iii-b (terawatt Ip), Lp	10 percent owner	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Energy Capital Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Dean Ellis	officer: Senior Vice President	601 TRAVIS STREET, STE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Sheree M. Petrone	officer: Executive Vice President	601 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Martin W. Daley	officer: Executive Vice President	601 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Daniel P. Thompson	officer: Executive Vice President	601 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Julius Cox	officer: Executive Vice President, other: Chief Administrative Officer	77 BEALE STREET, POB 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177