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Dynasil of America (Dynasil of America) Predictability Rank


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What is Dynasil of America Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dynasil of America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dynasil of America Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dynasil of America (Dynasil of America) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Dynasil Corp of America (OTCPK:DYSL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
UCLE MIND MEEC IMLE ELSE BNSO SCND SMIT LCTC FLXT TSE:6861 FTV KEYS OSTO:HEXA B GRMN TDY CGNX HICTF TSE:8036 TRMB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
313 Washington Street, Suite 403, Newton, MA, USA, 02458
Website
https://www.dynasil.com
Dynasil Corp of America is a US-based company. It operates in three segments. The Optics segment, which is the key revenue driver, encompasses Dynasil Fused Silica, Evaporated Metal Films, Hilger Crystals, and Optometrics. It manufactures commercial products, including optical crystals for sensing in the security and medical imaging markets, and optical components, optical coatings and optical materials for scientific instrumentation and other applications. The Innovation and Development segment consists of the Radiation Monitoring Devices. The Biomedical segment consists of Dynasil Biomedical, a medical technology incubator that owns rights to certain early-stage medical technologies.
Executives
Bowdring Robert Joseph Jr officer: Former CFO 92 GOULD STREET, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Alan B Levine director
Lawrence Joseph Fox director C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET - 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Craig T Dunham director, 10 percent owner DYNASIL CORPORATION, 385 COOPER ROAD, WEST BERLIN NJ 08091
David Kronfeld director JK&B CAPITAL, 180 N. STETSON AVENUE, SUITE 4500, CHICAGO IL 60601
Thomas C Leonard director KADANT INC., 1 TECHONOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Gerald Entine 10 percent owner 100 BELVIDERE STREET, SUITE 10B, BOSTON MA 02199