Encision (Encision) Predictability Rank

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What is Encision Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Encision Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Encision Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Encision (Encision) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Encision Inc (OTCPK:ECIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6797 Winchester Circle, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301

Website

https://www.encision.com

Encision Inc is a medical device company. The company develops and markets technology that provides unprecedented outcomes and patient safety in minimally-invasive surgery. The company has established and developed AEM (Active Electrode Monitoring) technology and surgical instruments which provides surgeons with the desired tissue effects of cutting and coagulating tissue in laparoscopic procedures while preventing stray electrosurgical energy that can cause complications and even death. The segments of the company are Product and Service. Product designs develops, manufactures and markets patented surgical instruments. Service performs electrical engineering activities for external entities.

Executives

Robert H Fries	director	800 FILLMORE ST, DENVER CO 80206
Peter D Geary	officer: VP of Operations	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
Jason E Johnson	officer: VP Sales	17752 WEDGEWOOD LANE, PRIOR LAKE MN 55372
Patrick R Dixon	director	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
Gregory J. Trudel	director, officer: CEO	5241 RIMROCK LANE, FORT COLLINS CO 80526
Brian J Jackman	director	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80301
Von Der Lippe Paul	director	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
Denise Baker	director	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER X1 80301
Vern D Kornelsen	director, 10 percent owner	4605 S. DENICE DR, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Partners Lllp Cmed	10 percent owner
Patrick W Pace	director	3701 SOARING EAGLE, AUSTIN TX 78746
Michael Biggs	officer: VP Engineering	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
Brad Greathouse	officer: VP RA/QA	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
Valerie Ray	officer: VP of Operations	6797 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, BOULDER CO 80301
David W Newton	director, officer: VP Technology	8099 NORTH 63RD STREET, LONGMONT CO 80503