Eagle Pharmaceuticals (Eagle Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Eagle Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eagle Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eagle Pharmaceuticals (Eagle Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Eagle Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:EGRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1E6:Germany

Address

50 Tice Boulevard, Suite 315, Woodcliff Lake, NJ, USA, 07677

Website

http://www.eagleus.com

Eagle Pharmaceuticals Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company develops and commercializes injectable products in the areas of critical care, orphan diseases, and oncology. Its product portfolio consists of four approved products: Argatroban, Ryanodex, Belrapzo, and Bendeka. The company currently has multiple product candidates in advanced stages of development and is under review for approval by the Food and Drug Administration.

Executives

Scott Tarriff	director, officer: President and CEO	28 TUDOR ROSE TERRACE, MAHWAH NJ 07430
Richard A. Edlin	director	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BOULEVARD, SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Michael Shawn Moran	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BLVD., SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF NJ 07677
Luciana Borio	director	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BLVD., SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Brian Joseph Cahill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BOULEVARD, SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Judith Ng-cashin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O EAGLE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BOULEVARD, SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Hudson Executive Capital Lp	director	C/O CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM & TAFT, LLP, 200 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Hec Management Gp Llc	director	1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jennifer K. Simpson	director	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 810 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 3505, NEW YORK NY 10019
Douglas L Braunstein	director	HUDSON EXECUTIVE CAPITAL LP, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sander A Flaum	director	630 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Pete A. Meyers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TETRALOGIC PHARMACEUTICALS CORP, 343 PHOENIXVILLE PIKE, MALVERN PA 19355
David Pernock	director	405 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, EXTON PA 19341
Proquest Investments Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	2430 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD, #108 - 190, NAPLES FL 34109
Steven L. Krill	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O EAGLE PHARMCEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BLVD. SUITE 315, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677